A 1-1 draw in Poland when we should have won and a rather tame defeat at home to Slovakia have pretty much put an end to Northern Ireland’s World Cup hopes. Slovenia are level on points, but with a game in hand. That game is away to Slovakia, but even if they lose that, their last game is at home to San Marino which they’re pretty sure to win. All this means that Northern Ireland have to hope Slovakia beat Slovenia (which sounds like a bit of a commentator’s nightmare) and then beat the Czechs in Prague by a ridiculous margin to finish second. Not going to happen.
However, there is cause for optimism. In Euro 2008 we were two stupid defeats against Iceland away from qualifying, and this time we’ve been in the pack until the second-to-last match of the campaign. This is a vast improvement from the goal-less Euro 2004 campaign, and the 2006 World Cup where we only managed wins against Azerbaijan and (albeit, a very good one) England. David Healy not scoring goals isn’t really a positive (he’s only scored one, and that was against San Marino), but at least others like Lafferty, Feeney and McCann are now getting in on the act. The home record is still decent and the fans remain magnificent. I remain hopeful that we can address the poor away record (in the last two campaigns, we’ve only beaten Liechtenstein and San Marino away) and maybe, finally qualify for something like the 2012 Euros (or maybe even 2016, when it expands to 24 teams).
So now the question is, who to support in South Africa? Ten teams have made it so far: South Africa, Japan, Australia, North Korea, South Korea, Brazil, Ghana, England and Spain, with Ivory Coast, Serbia and Slovakia likely to follow suit soon enough.
In times gone by, I would have supported Scotland, but it seems they have fallen on just as hard times as we have. Last time, they were undone by a bad refereering decision in the last game after doing pretty well over the twelve games (calamitous defeat in Georgia aside), but for this, injuries, suspensions, poor discipline, bad refereeing, V-signs and an interesting (read: rather strange) fixture list led to their downfall. I am not alone in being baffled by choosing to play in Macedonia at high noon in a Balkan summer, or in Norway before the SPL has even started (and halfway through the Norwegian season). Anyway, I suspect that the poor manager will be the scapegoat and won’t be in charge for next month’s game with Japan. Might see him round Marchmont a bit more though.
But really, I guess it’s too early to pick a team to follow. If Ireland get through, it’ll be them, but if not, then there will be 32 teams to choose from. Except will it really be worth having a soft spot for North Korea, Bahrain or New Zealand, Algeria, Tunisia, Honduras, Slovakia, Costa Rica, Japan or any other bastions of mediocrity that look like they could qualify? I guess that’s the problem with a 32-team World Cup. Oh well, the next round’s in October, so we’ll see who qualifies then!